The drought that has plagued the West for the last several years has resulted in a forecast calling for serious fires over the course of the next several months, perhaps even the rest of 2022. The forecast has proved uncannily prophetic. At least three significant fires are now scorching hundreds of thousands of acres of northern New Mexico, and at the moment, there is no way of predicting how soon they’ll be extinguished.
The Cerro Pelado Fire now cutting a red hot path across a swath of land near Los Alamos, New Mexico, is taxing both personnel and resources. As it burns, firefighters also have their hands full with other big burns with the Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon Fires in San Miguel and Mora Counties. All three fires are in the state’s northern region. The Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon fire (near Las Vegas, New Mex.) has so far consumed more than 200,000 acres of high country timber.
Albuquerque television station KRQE reported that “at least 166 homes have been burned in the Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon Fire.” But that number is fluid pending fire officials getting in closer for an updated count
It is not only the drought that has turned hundreds of thousands of acres into kindling, but two added elements have made it even more dangerous. Nearly non-stop winds and plunging humidity have made fighting the fires both ultra-dangerous and unpredictable.
By early Wednesday morning, the acreage burned in the Cerro Pelado Fire was closing in on 50,000 acres. Because of the diversity of terrain as well as the turn-on-a-dime weather conditions, it’s hard to tell how long it will be before it’s under control. It could be days or even weeks. Smoke from the fires has also created a visible sheen of brown across Colorado skies.
Anderson said high winds can not only breeze through extra acreage in a matter of minutes, but they can also prevent scoopers—aircraft that fly low over lakes to gather water—from doing their jobs. “You put a bucket down with 500 gallons of water (in wind) and that starts swinging, it could take the helicopter with it.” Pilots, he said, “fly until they feel it is unsafe.”
“For the last three days,” said U.S. Forest Service Public Information Officer Joe Anderson, “we’ve had red flag warnings,” meaning there’s been little opportunity to relax. Record-setting temperatures, low humidity and steady winds, “gusts up to 70 mph,” he said, have allowed firefighters to only fight the blaze to a draw.
On Tuesday, New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham did share an upbeat message to the state on the fires saying that no new structures have been lost in any of the burns. “For me,” she said, “even though it’s unconfirmed, it’s really good news.”
But good news can be fleeting when nature’s unpredictability is performing this seasonal dance. “There are lots of canyons, mountainous area, and steep terrain,” said Anderson. Each poses its own set of variables, he said. Fuels- –brush and forest—can be ignited in an instant when the tiniest ember alites. The path of a red-hot ember is unpredictable.
Another piece of good news occurred early on Tuesday morning on the Cerro Pelado fire, Anderson said. The nightshift commander came in last night and said that the winds that had blown so fiercely during the day had died down in the early morning hours. “It was an awesome night because they could get so much work done.”
Field commanders overseeing the more than 800 men and women on the Cerro Pelado fire say crews are each working twelve-hour shifts. They don’t want to push the crews beyond what is safe. “Fatigue is very realistic,” said Anderson. So far, there have no reported injuries.
Neither have there been any loss of homes in and around Los Alamos. Locals have been keeping up on fire information, said Anderson, via social media. “We’re trying to communicate through Facebook, Twitter and Instaweb. Anderson, who is based in Washington state and, like so many others, has been dispatched from across the country to the fire, said the Forest Service is using what he calls the ‘Five P’s when told to evacuate. They are told to grab prescriptions (medications), pets, plastic cards (credit and debit), pictures and personal computers.
New Mexico’s fire season may be a harbinger of what the West awaits this summer and well as for the next several months. Record-breaking fires have occurred in Colorado and other parts of a sun-parched West over the last several years. They have also not restricted themselves to wilderness areas. Last December’s Marshall Fire in Boulder County destroyed more than a thousand homes and was recorded as the state’s most destructive ever fire.
In October 2020, the East Troublesome fire near Kremmling actually jumped across the Continental Divide and burned more than 300 square miles. It was Colorado’s second-largest forest fire. Also in 2020, the Cameron Peak fire burned more than 326 square miles. It started on the Labor Day weekend and burned for more than 110 days. In that period, it burned 469 structures and destroyed 224 homes.
