The next presidential election is still, starting today, 445 days away. Realistically, very few are even thinking that far ahead. But the subject is at the forefront of the minds of a number of men and women who think they’ve got the right stuff for the job. For them, the presidential juices are already bubbling. Some are talking, either out loud or in whispers. Others are coyly hinting and modestly showing a little ankle.
President Biden announced last month that he wants a second term. So has his predecessor, still licking his wounds from the last presidential election. Whether in a midnight rant or in one of his marathon stump speeches, Donald Trump is sticking to his story that he was ‘robbed,’ and should still be president. Of course, between now and the next presidential election, for Trump, there’s also that matter of legal issues he must first deal with.
In New York, he’s looking at three serious legal challenges. There are both state and local tax charges; he’s also facing a civil case of sexual assault. The Department of Justice is also building a case against him involving the illegal taking of classified documents. Finally, Georgia’s Fulton County DA is putting the finishing touches on an election tampering case. New York, Georgia and DOJ are felony cases and convictions could result in jail terms. Still, Trump leads his party’s early polling.
“People are partisan first and foremost,” said Dr. Phil Chen, a University of Denver political science professor. “I’m not sure a conviction is going to do that much.” That, however, doesn’t mean that President Biden nor potential Republican contenders will just drop the subject and not hammer on Trump’s litany of character issues.
The pool party list of potential candidates—the hotshots, long shots and no shots—includes a former vice president, sitting governors, ex-governors, sitting congress members and an ex-congressman. There’s even a mega-millionaire who’s, perhaps, the pool’s most right-leaning candidate.
As of today, the most formidable name in the Republican field is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. DeSantis, though still undeclared, has maneuvered himself onto the top of the food chain of candidates by enacting some of the most conservative, perhaps even draconian, laws in the country.
Among the new laws signed by DeSantis as he solidifies a position to run include a required moment of silence in school each day, a law critics suggest is a tacit form of required prayer; a ban on transgendered athletes competing in girl’s and women’s high school and college teams; concealed carry without a permit; eliminating unanimous jury decisions in death penalty trials; legislation earmarking $12 million to transport new migrants out of state; banning the teaching or discussion of Critical Race Theory in schools or businesses; banning text books or materials that might make students or parents uncomfortable. Each new law or policy is seen as a move to gain deeper approval and respect among party loyalists.
While the Democrats might normally be comfortable with an incumbent as their presidential candidate, that’s not entirely the case this cycle. The concern can be spelled out in three letters: A-G-E. When the next presidential election is held, President Biden will be 82, making him the oldest president in U.S. history.
For now, the President and his physicians say he’s in good health. But in his reelection launch video, images of Vice President Harris were included ten times. Critics argue it’s either a signal that he may not run or that Harris could become president if anything should happen to the President. The Biden camp says it only means they’re a team.
“It absolutely has to mean something,” said Chen, of the obvious inclusion of Harris in the video. But age, he adds, also has to mean something for both parties. In November 2024, Trump will also be pushing 80. “People will be thinking about it,” but perhaps not speaking—at least loudly—about it. Still, privately, said the DU professor, it will be a matter for discussion.
But even more than age, said Chen, will be the issue of character especially as it applies to Trump. If the legal chain of events Trump is facing results in convictions, it could alter the landscape dramatically. A guilty verdict in a civil case, the one involving sexual assault, would mean only a fine—a potentially hefty one—but, only a fine. Convictions in one or more of the other cases in which he’s named could result in incarceration.
“To a lot of people, to a lot of Democrats,” Chen said, “it is absolutely the relevant question.” But to Trump’s base, he said, that’s not the way it’s seen. “It’s turned around. The media’s ‘out to get Donald Trump.’” “The simple fact,” he said, “is the parties no longer agree on facts.”
November 2024 is still a long way off and there are a number of things that could reshuffle the presidential equation. “There’s the debt ceiling, the economy, inflation. It’s so hard to predict,” said Chen. There is also Russia’s war in Ukraine, China and a Middle East where tensions in a number of countries could suddenly erupt. There are also potential or declared candidates that could catch fire and suddenly become political darlings. That person could be among those who have already caught the fever or a dark horse who suddenly emerges with a message that causes people to begin paying attention.
There is also that dark conversation, Chen said, that could turn into a reality. With both candidates already staring at actuarial realities—age and mortality—the 2024 Presidential Election could end up with the names of Biden and Trump both missing from the ballot and replaced by candidates no one today is even looking at.
The next Presidential Election is a long way off. But like sideview mirrors, objects—elections—may appear closer than you think.
