By: Ernest Gurulé
For more than a year, Russian President Vladimir Putin had, in a steely-eyed manner, signaled that his country had a historical and territorial score to settle with Ukraine. The president for life’s not so veiled threat was based on Ukraine’s growing interest in joining NATO, a prospect he found both unacceptable and threatening.
To underscore his point and just months after President Biden was sworn into office, in April 2021, Putin placed 120,000 Russian troops on the two countries common border under the guise of military maneuvers.
Today, Putin’s threat is playing out in real time and a carnage not seen in eastern Europe since World War II.
On February 25th, Russia’s thunder metastisized into a reign of terror with a multi-front attack on key Ukrainian targets that included cities, military installations, rail lines and railroad stations and power stations.
Normal life up and down eastern Ukraine vanished, along with the lives of as many as 15,000 men, women and children, some as young as three months of age.
Once vibrant cities have emptied and been replaced with mountains of brick, mortar and clouds of dust. Food and water have become scarce, even nonexistent in some still occupied cities. Millions of Ukrainians have fled the country, many to neighboring countries. Some have even made their way to America’s southern border where they await U.S. immigration approval to enter.
“This looks like it’s turning into an intractable, longer venture than initially was thought,” said Richard Moeller, Metropolitan State University Denver political science professor. Russia’s often clumsy and sometimes indecipherable military tactics have exposed glaring inefficiencies in its superpower image. NATO estimates that as many as 40,000 Russian troops have been killed, injured or captured.
The U.S. along with European allies have funneled billions in weapons to Ukraine and last week, President Biden promised another $1.3 billion in additional military aid. In addition to weapons and ammunition, the West has also imposed critical economic sanctions, embargoes and undertaken confiscations of property owned by Russian oligarchs.
Over the weekend, the U.S. sent its so far highest delegation to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin paid a visit and pledged unqualified support. “We don’t know how the rest of this war will unfold,” said Blinken, “but we do know that a sovereign independent Ukraine will be around a lot longer than Vladimir Putin is on the scene.” The U.S. also announced that it will be returning its embassy staff to Ukraine.
But despite an overwhelming international condemnation to Putin’s aggression, to date there has been no lessening in Russia’s scorched earth offensive in Ukraine which, even in pre-war days, has been inspired by, at best, curious reasoning. “The purpose of this operation,” Putin said, “is to protect people who for eight years now have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kyiv regime.”
Adding to his justification, Putin pledged to “demilitarize and denazify Ukraine.”
Putin’s specious reasoning, Moeller suggests, is a smokescreen for his ultimate desire. The MSUD professor who has studied the histories of war and despotic leaders says Putin’s motivation is something called irredentism, “getting back land you think was stolen.” Russians, he said, think Ukraine actually belongs to them. In a national speech just days ahead of the first strike on Ukraine, Putin used a Russian-inspired history to justify the imminent offensive.
“I’ll start with the fact that modern Ukraine was entirely created by Russia,” he said.
Moeller believes land acquisition through war is archaic thinking in a 21st century world. “Why do you need territory when you can just trade,” he asks, “But states,” he contends, “still want sovereignty and control. It’s still about land acquisition.”
But the Russian aggression, suggested Moeller, carries no time stamp or expiration date. Russia, despite an economy that the world sees as tepid, at best, still ranks as a military superpower. “They’re next door and can launch weapons from their own territory.” Additionally, Russia has a history of lockjaw resistance, most recently World War II when they fought a war of attrition with Nazi Germany.
But Ukraine has shown the world an amazing resilience and ability to succeed at all costs. When Russia began its offensive in late February, much of the world thought it would be a short-lived conflict. It has been anything but quick and easy. Russia has also lost as many as fifteen senior commanders, including as many as six generals. The loss of so many high ranking officers especially in such a short period of time is almost unprecedented.
Nearly as surprising is the fact that Ukrainians have fought so valiantly against a better armed opposition. It has captured the world’s imagination along with its support with its steadfast determination to maintain its sovereignty at all costs. President Zelensky has also acquired a bounty of world class respect for leading his nation against all odds in this conflict.
A big question facing Russia is how big a price will Putin pay at home especially with no end to the fighting in sight and a daily body count of young Russian soldiers dying in Ukraine. Despite the fact that he has seized control of all information coming from the war and has ordered mass arrests of opposition voices, to date he still enjoys high approval numbers among Russians. But that is today, said Moeller. “When it’s over,” Moeller speculated, “he will.”
