When I see Russian reaction to NATO at its doorstep I am reminded of America’s own perceived need to put troops along the border with Mexico and even invade it for reasons of security on the surface and to make a land grab as part of Manifest Destiny. The Russians do not appear to need any more land as they have a continent size country with 11 time zones that stretches from the North Atlantic to the North Pacific.
Just like the United States, Russia as the leader of the Soviet Union last military adventure was in Afghanistan where it, like the U.S., lost “its shirt” trying to turn that country into an expression of its own ideology. Yet still, the projection of presence as world powers continues to be the major agenda of both countries’ foreign policy.
Ukraine however, is not Afghanistan and an invasion of the country has to have a territorial goal in order to justify the expected bloodshed. This goal appears to be more a matter of political control that can turn Ukraine into a buffer state against NATO and its European alliance.
This ambition is part of a broader desire to stay relevant as the world transitions to a U.S.-China contest for economic and military power. Let us not forget that it was the Soviet Union that helped birth the Mao Zedong China and that this country has gone on to create an economy challenging for supremacy.
The military aspect of the U.S.-China contest is still on the horizon. That is where Russia as the “junior” partner of the Russian-Chinese relationship comes in as it still has the old Soviet capability of an arsenal of advanced weapons that China is still developing.
In order to be an effective partner with China, Russia must secure its borders using a federation of buffer states just like it did when it was the Soviet Union. Standing in the way is Ukraine that sees itself as an evolving political democracy looking to join the European community.
The inconvenient truth is that Ukraine borders Russian controlled territory on three sides. Its vulnerability to military and political pressures makes it look like another Poland before World War II.
We saw what happened to Poland as we watched it disappear at the hands of the Soviet Union in the east and German Reich in the west. I have read of the sense of helplessness on the part of its allies and the half-hearted declaration of war obligated by their treaty that then turned into a world conflict.
To be sure, Putin’s Russia is diminished in terms of political power and influence across the globe. Its oil and natural gas resources are the leading sector of an economy that is placed 11th in the world.
It is its military might made up of the most advanced weapons and a nuclear arsenal that separates it from others in its class. That is the instrument President Putin is using to make his point about his country’s national security.
The issue for the United States as the leader of the free-world is to understand that the situation has less to do with ideology and more to do with an authoritarian leader wanting to stay relevant and wanting to secure his country’s exposed flanks. A security guarantee is the diplomatic challenge to be met.
The question for Putin is complicated by the fact that he has over 130,000 troops on the border ready to go. How can he deescalate without losing face?
The views expressed by David Conde are not necessarily the views of la Voz bilingüe. Comments and responses may be directed to News@lavozcolorado.com.
