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A Spring blizzard of bad news for Trump, Santos and the GOP

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Anyone asking Donald Trump how his last week went, might get two different answers. The week began when Manhattan jurors— taking only three hours after a weeks-long trial—found him liable for sexual abuse and defamation. The jury also awarded accuser E. Jean Carroll $5 million in damages for an assault committed by the ex-president more than 25 years ago. Trump did not appear in per- son at the trial and jurors relied on a deposition he gave earlier in the procedure. The tape included Trump’s words from the infamous Hollywood Access tape in which he bragged that ‘as a star’ you could impose yourself on women.

While the verdict was not good for Trump, he managed to snare what he called victory last Wednesday evening. In a CNN townhall, Trump thoroughly trampled network moderator, Kaitlin Collins, owning the stage, the friendly crowd and Trump supporters across the country for the better part of 90 minutes. His fusillade of lies or, more generously, misstatements, kept fact checkers busy.

He began with his ‘never-let-die’ lie about the 2020 election, an election, certifiably lost by more than seven million votes. Piggybacking on that foundational fantasy, he defended his call to the Georgia Secretary of State in which he asked him to “find me 11,780 votes,” in order to win the state. He called it, “a perfect phone call.”

The townhall, two days removed from the New York civil trial, was held squarely in Trump country with a Republican or Republican-leaning audience of three hundred at New Hampshire’s Saint Anselm College. Despite an audience that was half women—a group he’ll need to win in 2024— Trump unleashed a litany of insulting comments about the woman who had just won a multi-million sexual assault civil judgment against him. He also called the televised town hall moderator Collins “a nasty person.” Post town hall pundits said the comment was a huge unforced error.

But University of Denver political science professor Phil Chen said despite Trump’s boorishness, it may not matter. “He’s been accused by dozens of women. Most attitudes about him are baked in,” he said. “One conviction is not going to make much of a difference.”

While Chen suggests his after-the-bell attack on Carroll may not linger with some women, the abortion issue—a prospective pillar for Trump’s 2024 campaign— could. The Dobbs decision, the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v Wade, angered women, especially younger women and anger, said Chen, often translates into “a mindset of involvement,” enthusiastic opposition.

Still, Trump called the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision “a great victory.” He hedged on whether or not he would support a national ban on abortion saying only that it put Republicans “in a very good negotiating position” with Roe now history.

The town hall was a near dress rehearsal for what a 2024 Trump campaign might sound like. He refused to criticize Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine while praising Capitol insurrection Ashley Babbitt, the woman fatally shot by a Capitol police officer, an officer Trump referred to as “a thug.”

The twice-impeached ex-president also referred to the January 6th assault on the Capitol as “a beautiful day,” and teased that he might pardon many of those charged in the insurrection, perhaps including Proud Boys and Oath Keepers, two groups thought instrumental in the planning of the event.

Trump still must deal with three pending felony cases, including a federal case tied to classified documents he took with him when he left Washington. Trump denied pilfering anything, saying only, “I had every right to do it. I didn’t make a secret of it.” Ex-presidents, he intimated, could legally take whatever they choose.

The road to ’24, however, remains dicey for Trump. His version of the call to Georgia’s attorney general sits in direct contrast to what was recorded. And Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, who has been investigating Trump’s phone call for more than a year, recently stated indictments are coming.

If Trump is his party’s nominee, it is conceivable that he may run with a mix of acquittals and convictions. But will that be enough to turn his voters against him? “It may lead to the Republican Party’s donors deciding not to support him or may lead other candidates realizing ‘that we need to coalesce around an alternative,’” said Chen. But “nothing will cause Donald Trump to reconsider his actions or his run for the presidency.”

Very bluntly, it was a bad week for Trump’s party. While House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was passing a bill on a bud- get that faces almost certain death in the Senate and refusing to budge on lifting the debt ceiling, rookie Congressman and inveterate yarn spinner George Santos was challenging for the spotlight.

The New York Republican, who has lied about his edu- cation, his lineage, college volleyball prowess at a college he never attended, imaginary surgeries, his own mother’s death in the 9/11 attack and other ‘accomplishments,’ was indicted by a New York federal grand jury. He’s accused of duping donors, stealing from his campaign and illegally collecting unemployment benefits while still employed. In all, he’s charged with 13 federal crimes that carry up to 20 years in prison. Santos has pleaded not guilty. He said he will prove his innocence and has no plans to resign.

Coincidentally, the House Republican caucus official photograph was taken last week and it did not include Santos. House Speaker McCarthy has also not commented on Santos, saying only that the public should allow the legal process to play out.

Santos’ arrest may not look good, but McCarthy will probably not force his resignation, Chen said. “Leadership doesn’t want to set precedent of expelling members of its own party…that would only give Democrats more ammunition.”

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