It is predicted by some that 2036 is the magical year that will see Mexico reach parity with the United States in several key areas that coordinate with the economic well-being of the country. Also, by that time, it is suggested that China’s economic engine will have fully engaged the over 900 million new consumers within its borders that represent the basis for the Chinese ascension to number one in the world.
The economic renaissance of countries around the world like Mexico and China adds urgency to an effort to stay ahead of the competition and strengthen the North American trade treaty that is set for renewal in 2026. The United States – Mexico – Canada trade agreement signed by President Trump during his first term is up for intense negotiations in the coming two years, hopefully leading to an extension.
Standing in the way is the incoming administration’s desire for a policy of mass deportations of the undocumented in the country and the desire to bring Mexico’s present industrial production for export to America. Mass immigrant deportation was a the major campaign issue for MAGA leading to the election of Trump.
I remember the beginning of the Great Recession in December 2007 that mostly came from home financing over-extension that created a national housing bubble. In that case, the annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was reduced by 4.3 percent leading to the greatest economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Research is indicating that the planned mass deportation of the 13.3 million undocumented will create a 4.2 percent downturn of the GDP that is almost the same as what caused the Great Recession. The reduction of productivity will also cost “hundreds of thousands” jobs to America.
A related issue is the idea of Mexico as the 51st State expressed by President-elect Trump confirms that Mexico is becoming the industrial heart of the North American trade block. The desire to take those industries to the United States and perhaps end the trade agreement is full of negative consequences not only for Mexico, but also for the United States.
In the case of the United States, the expense of manufacturing in America will greatly increase prices to our consumers. In the case of Mexico, China is already there and is prepared to fill the void left by the United States and Canada.
The repatriation of the undocumented also involves a number of complications. First, there are 5.1 million American children born to undocumented parents.
The Trump record of separating families may very well be happening again. Relevant to this is the fact that President Sheinbaum of Mexico has stated that she will only accept Mexican deportees that number less than 5 million.
The America First agenda promised by the incoming President is possibly leaving much of the world economic interests to the Chinese and the Europeans. The very thing that could counter that and keep America in the lead is the North American economic block.
It also seems to me that setbacks American political policies bring, it will not detract from the accelerated development in Mexico and its economic renaissance. The shadow of the United States is diminishing as Mexico’s neighbor to the north falls into greater decadence.
2025 appears to be a year of major changes not only in the United States but also in North America. Since China is already heavily invested in the Americas, its role in the hemisphere and in Mexico must be taken seriously.
The United States interests are moving to Asia. Mexico is already there.
The views expressed by David Conde are not necessarily the views of LaVozColorado. Comments and responses may be directed to News@lavozcolorado.com.
