In political shorthand, the case is simply called ‘Dobbs.’ It was supposed to be the issue that would deliver to conservatives victory after fifty long years of social issue war. Instead, it has turned into a political hot potato that may actually make victory problematic for Republicans at both the state and national level in the next election.
Dobbs, of course, is the name of the June 2022 case decided by the Supreme Court. It overturned a law that had been on the books for a half a century. The law, Roe v. Wade, is the statute that gave women the right to an abortion.
But, oddly, certainly for Republicans, the enthusiasm for the death of Roe didn’t elicit the avalanche of women voters—or men, for that matter—they had hoped or expected. And it didn’t take long for the right to see and feel the anger inspired by the death of Roe.
Just 42 days after the Courts’ Dobbs vote, Kansas, a dependably red state, voted on a proposed state amendment that would eliminate the constitutional right to an abortion. The vote in conservative Kansas was nothing if not shocking. The proposed amendment went down 59-41.
But just a year later, the political right has come to learn that its fight against abortion rights, it’s half a century ‘go-to’ issue, may just have run its course.
“This vote makes clear what we know: the majority of Americans agree that women should have access to abortion and should have the right to make their own health care decisions,” President Biden said of the 2022 Kansas vote. But since Kansas, abortion issues on the ballot in Kentucky, Ohio and Virginia have all been defeated.
Former Colorado Senate President and Colorado Democratic Party Chair Morgan Carroll called the ‘pet grievance’ Republicans could once count upon, tantamount to the ‘dog finally catching the car.’ “Anti-choice conserva- tives have and will continue to face electoral backlash at the polls,” said Morgan. “While there are always multiple factors at play, there is no doubt a backlash to the abortion decisions is impacting elections.” The abortion factor also played heavily in 2022 midterms and, of course, added Morgan, “that trend continued in the 2023 elections,” just two weeks ago. Dobbs, predicted Morgan, will continue to hurt Republicans among a growing number of Americans, especially younger voters.
In Colorado abortion is legal at all stages of pregnancy, but outpatient abortion is only available up to 26 weeks. State law also allows for medically terminated pregnancies up to 34 weeks for a number of conditions including fetal anomalies, genetic disorders and fetal demise.
While access to full health care, including abortion, is enshrined in Colorado law, in 26 states, most in the South and Midwest, that is not the case. In a National Partnership for Women & Families and the National Latina Institute for Reproduction Justice, it was found that as many as 6.7 million Latinas—43 percent of all Latinas ages 15-49—living in 26 states are not so fortunate. Those states have, the survey said, banned or may be on track to ban abortions.
The highest concentrations of this group live in three states, Arizona, Florida and Texas. In Texas, there are 2.9 million Latinas of childbearing age. Additionally, it is estimated that more than three million Latinas living in these states are already mothers.
Carroll, now in private practice, said women in Colorado need not worry about their healthcare needs, including abortion. “Because of Democratic leadership,” noted the former Senate President, “reproductive rights remain protected.” She also said that physicians, targeted for providing abortion services in some states, can also conduct their healthcare business without the threat of criminal punishment. They will not “be denied medical malpractice insurance, or net- work states on the basis of providing abortion care.”
Despite huge amounts of money spent in Kentucky, Ohio and Virginia elections to pass restrictive abortion laws and then lose on the issue, Republicans have vowed to continue their war on women’s healthcare.
Several themes have become ingrained in anti-abortion campaigns, including the argument that Democrats favor laws that allow for abortion up to ninth month of pregnancy. The CCD says 90 percent of abortions happen in the first 13 weeks of pregnancy. Former president Trump recently told an Arizona audience that “babies can be killed even after birth.” The claim is untrue.
Pro-life groups have also falsely stated that religious people don’t get abortions. In fact, according to the Guttmacher Institute, a research and policy organization, more than 60 percent of abortion patients have religious affiliations.
With the Presidential Election now less than a year away, abortion rights are certain to be a theme woven into both state and national campaigns. Democrats will undoubtedly bang their drum loudly that they’re the party of choice.
Republicans, the party that vowed for fifty years to overturn Roe, may have to go back to the drawing board to refine their argument.
A recent Gallup Poll indicated that 69 percent of Americans think abortion should generally be legal in the first three months of pregnancy. Thirty-four percent of Americans believe it should be legal under any circumstance. But perhaps most reflective of the reality that times have changed on this issue is that 52 percent of all Americans now say abortion is morally acceptable, a full ten percentage points higher than in 2001.
Another key demographic favoring Democrats on this issue are 18-29- year-olds. In another Gallup poll, this group favored abortion rights by a 64-29 margin.
Abortion, once a winning or at least a ‘move-the-needle’ issue for Republicans, no longer holds the same sway. But that does not mean Republicans will avoid the issue at ‘Campaign ‘24’ gains steam. “I do think we have to talk about the issue,” said Ronna McDaniel, Republican National Chairwoman on NBC’s Meet the Press. “We can’t just say it’s a state’s issue and be done.”
And, says Carroll, that is just fine with Democrats. “As long as Republicans pursue intrusive, cruel and extreme positions on reproductive rights, they will lose swing elections.”
