The country has just witnessed the equivalent of a full-scale, month-long political food fight. It happened in Texas. But the Lone Star cage match may just be the opening salvo in what other states may do to counter this real time version of legislators behaving badly.
Texas and its governor decided it needed to all of a sudden redraw voting districts, something normally done every ten years following the constitutionally mandated U.S. Census.
This redistricting was done at the behest of President Trump and the Department of Justice. But it was Trump who told Governor Greg Abbott directly that he ‘needed’ five more seats in the legislature. The governor got it done.
The new Texas map gives Republicans and Trump the five new heavily red districts and improves their chances of winning new seats in Congress. At the same time, it shrinks traditional Latino and Black districts. The term used liberally to describe the process in the redrawing districts is gerrymandering.
In previous court cases racial gerrymandering, redrawing voting districts, was used to dilute the number of voters to the advantage of a majority. The 14th Amendment says that a state must treat all voters equally under the law.
The Equal Protection Clause makes it imperative in safeguarding civil liberties and voting rights because it requires states “to govern impartially” and not separate individuals based on differences, including race.
Texas Democrats say that has been the Republican game plan all along. “It disregards the growth and diversity of our state,” Laredo Democratic Senator Judith Zaffirini told The Texas Standard, an electronic news magazine that covers the legislature. “It further erodes the strength of minority districts, diminishing our ability to elect candidates of our choice and silencing voices that deserve to be heard.”
The Texas redistricting put the state in the news for much of the month. And for much of the month, there were regular news reports on Texas House Democrats who had fled the state to prevent a quorum and make a vote on the matter impossible. But the move by Republicans was actually more déjà vu than a first-time action.
“It has been done before,” said University of Denver political scientist Seth Masket. “It was pushed by Tom DeLay,” he said. Just as this move was successful, so too was DeLay’s. Masket said DeLay, then U.S. House Majority Leader and former Texas legislator, engineered a nearly identical and ultimately successful Texas redistricting in 2003.
While five potentially new seats in Congress would seemingly appear to give Republicans and Trump stronger leverage, said Masket, nothing is guaranteed. For one, the move could galvanize Latino and Black voters feeling disenfranchised to retaliate by storming the polls and, perhaps, winning a seat or two. But the Lone Star move has inspired almost immediate backlash.
Other states controlled by Democrats began or may soon begin with moves of their own to blunt whatever gains Trump may have envisioned for the next Congress.
In California, Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom, a potential candidate for the presidency in 2028, and Assembly Democrats are formulating their own redistricting plan. But, unlike Texas where legislators created new maps, California voters will decide on the matter in a special election this November. Masket guesses that California may not be alone. “It could go well beyond,” he said. In fact, Illinois, Pennsylvania and New York—all lead by Democratic governors—could follow. The redistricting move, suggested Masket, could also set off something unseen before.
“Republicans could also try and blunt (California),” he said. “Ohio, Indiana and Florida,” all solidly red states, could undertake their own remapping. “You could get to a point,” he said, “where you could upend things in governance…breaking rules could cause a system breakdown.”
While those things cannot be totally ruled out, a more practical way of imagining the next House, Masket said, would be to look at recent history. “In midterms, the presidential party tends to lose. There’s a good chance there will be a pretty strong Democratic year, and Democrats are very likely to turn out.” With Republicans holding only a current seven vote House majority now, the DU political scientist said, “it would be pretty easy to take back the House.”
But, if Trump is successful and gets the House majority he’s hoping for, his life will be made a lot easier. Not having to deal with a Democratic majority, investigations and Democratic issued subpoenas might not be a concern. And with his party in control, whatever he wants from his House majority, is almost assured.
Something similar to what Texas did was tried in Colorado in 2003 when Republicans tried to do a mid-decade redistricting. It failed. And in 2018, state voters passed a constitutional amendment that established an independent redistricting commission to draw boundaries once a decade.
Governor Polis also reiterated his support for the commission and opposing mid-decade redrawing of districts as Texas has done.
